While there were some very encouraging signs in the Wallabies' performance against England in Perth it is significant that the home side was not able to build on their 14 point lead at half time and in fact lost the second half. This continues a quite worrying trend.
Last year there was intense speculation over the causes of the poor performance of the Wallabies during the Deans era, but one issue that has not been raised is whether their training has been appropriate for the intense physical demands of modern international rugby.
One indication that something is seriously wrong is the fact that the team has very frequently squandered a first-half lead. Of course there are so many factors that can influence how a game plays out that not much can be read into the scores in a particular game. The effects of long distance travel or a country fielding an under-strength team can have a major impact on the pattern of scoring.
However in contests between Australia and New Zealand distance is not really a relevant factor and both nations always endeavour to select their strongest team, so these matches provide an ideal environment to search for consistent patterns evident over a number of matches. Let's look at the last ten matches played between these countries prior to Robbie Deans taking over as coach. Australia is listed first with the first half scoreline, second half scoreline and overall result shown for each match.
15 Nov 03 13-7 W, 9-3 W, 22-10 W
17 Jul 04 0-3 L, 7-13 L, 7-16 L
7 Aug 04 12-12 D, 11-6 W, 23-18 W
13 Aug 05 13-3 W, 0-27 L, 13-30 L
3 Sep 05 5-20 L, 19-14 W, 24-34 L
8 Jul 06 7-14 L, 5-18 L, 12-32 L
29 Jul 06 6-10 L, 3-3 D, 9-13 L
19 Aug 06 20-11 W, 7-23 L, 27-34 L
30 Jun 07 6-15 L, 14-0 W, 20-15 W
21 Jul 07 9-9 D, 3-17 L, 12-26 L
It can be seen that the Wallabies won 3 of the first halves, drew 2 and lost 5. They won 4 second halves, drew 1 and lost 5. Overall they won 3 games and lost 7.
Now let's look at the stats for the eight Wallabies-All Blacks games since Deans has taken over:
26 Jul 08 17-12 W, 17-7 W, 34-19 W
2 Aug 08 10-21 L, 0-18 L, 10-39 L
13 Sep 08 10-3 W, 14-25 L, 24-28 L
1 Nov 08 14-9 W, 0-10 L, 14-19 L
18 Jul 09 13-10 W, 3-12 L, 16-22 L
22 Aug 09 12-3 W, 6-16 L, 18-19 L
19 Sep 09 6-16 L, 0-17 L, 6-33 L
31 Oct 09 16-13 W, 3-19 L, 19-32 L
Here we see that the Wallabies won an impressive 6 out of 8 first halves, but lost 7 out of 8 second halves and 7 out of 8 matches! Once the Deans coaching team had settled in, i.e., after the first Bledisloe match in July 2008, their team has lost very second half and every match. This looks like something more than random chance. The most likely culprit would seem to be inappropriate physical conditioning.
Read more...
Monday, June 14, 2010
Saturday, May 22, 2010
The Waratahs’ ideal centre pairing – Carter-Horne
Over the past three seasons the Waratahs have been most successful in limiting opposition scoring and achieving a positive points spread by using Tom Carter at 12 and Rob Horne at 13.
From 2008 to 2010 four players have started at 12. Comparing them in terms of number of games in that position, average points scored by the Waratahs, points against and points difference:
Barnes 9, 30.1, 22.0, 8.1
Beale 5, 21.6, 22.0, -0.4
Carter 24, 20.6, 15.0 5.5
Tahu 3, 16.0, 16.7 -0.7
The average points spread has been greatest with Berrick Barnes at inside centre but the opposition was able to score points more freely than when Carter played in that position.
Over the same three years five players have started at 13. The stats:
Carraro 1, 18.0, 11.0, 7.0
Carter 8, 26.9, 23.0, 3.9
Horne 21, 21.9, 15.9, 6.0
Jacobs 7, 20.4, 17.3, 3.1
Tahu 4, 21.5, 17.5, 4.0
As we might expect, when Horne is at 13 opposition scoring is most restricted.
The Waratahs have used nine different centre combinations yielding the following performance stats:
Barnes-Carter 6, 29.8, 21.5, 8.3
Barnes-Horne 3, 30.7, 23.0, 7.7
Beale-Carter 2, 18.0, 27.5, -9.5
Beale-Tahu 3, 24.0, 18.3, 5.7
Carter-Carraro 1, 18.0, 11.0, 7.0
Carter-Horne 15, 21.3, 14.3, 7.0
Carter-Jacobs 7, 20.4, 17.3, 3.1
Carter-Tahu 1, 14.0, 15.0, -1.0
Tahu-Horne 3, 16.0, 16.7, -0.7
Barnes with either Carter or Horne outside him has yielded the highest points spread but hasn’t really contained opposition scoring. By contrast the pairing of Carter and Horne seems best able to create a defensive wall without restricting their team’s ability to score. Containing the opposition is usually a determining factor in finals football. Putting Carter and Horne together also makes sense in view of the number of games they have played together.
Read more...
From 2008 to 2010 four players have started at 12. Comparing them in terms of number of games in that position, average points scored by the Waratahs, points against and points difference:
Barnes 9, 30.1, 22.0, 8.1
Beale 5, 21.6, 22.0, -0.4
Carter 24, 20.6, 15.0 5.5
Tahu 3, 16.0, 16.7 -0.7
The average points spread has been greatest with Berrick Barnes at inside centre but the opposition was able to score points more freely than when Carter played in that position.
Over the same three years five players have started at 13. The stats:
Carraro 1, 18.0, 11.0, 7.0
Carter 8, 26.9, 23.0, 3.9
Horne 21, 21.9, 15.9, 6.0
Jacobs 7, 20.4, 17.3, 3.1
Tahu 4, 21.5, 17.5, 4.0
As we might expect, when Horne is at 13 opposition scoring is most restricted.
The Waratahs have used nine different centre combinations yielding the following performance stats:
Barnes-Carter 6, 29.8, 21.5, 8.3
Barnes-Horne 3, 30.7, 23.0, 7.7
Beale-Carter 2, 18.0, 27.5, -9.5
Beale-Tahu 3, 24.0, 18.3, 5.7
Carter-Carraro 1, 18.0, 11.0, 7.0
Carter-Horne 15, 21.3, 14.3, 7.0
Carter-Jacobs 7, 20.4, 17.3, 3.1
Carter-Tahu 1, 14.0, 15.0, -1.0
Tahu-Horne 3, 16.0, 16.7, -0.7
Barnes with either Carter or Horne outside him has yielded the highest points spread but hasn’t really contained opposition scoring. By contrast the pairing of Carter and Horne seems best able to create a defensive wall without restricting their team’s ability to score. Containing the opposition is usually a determining factor in finals football. Putting Carter and Horne together also makes sense in view of the number of games they have played together.
Read more...
Sunday, May 09, 2010
Could the Stormers miss the Super 14 semis?
With only one round remaining in the 2010 Super 14 there is still considerable uncertainty about three of the semi-final positions. The Bulls are certain to finish on top but there are five teams vying for the remaining three positions. Intriguingly each of these teams has to play another finals contender. The three relevant games are: Crusaders vs. Brumbies at Christchurch; Waratahs vs. Hurricanes at Sydney; and Stormers vs. Bulls at Cape Town.
The current competition points tally and points for-and-against difference for the five teams are:
Stormers 39 166
Waratahs 38 81
Brumbies 37 85
Hurricanes 37 51
Crusaders 36 75
The Reds are virtually no possibility of making the four. Mathematically there is only one way they could make it. They would have to win with a bonus point and the Stormers lose without any bonus points, plus they would have to make up the 90 points difference advantage that the Stormers hold over them.
The most likely semi-finalists are the Bulls, Stormers and the winners of the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games. However both the Stormers if they lose and Crusaders even if they win are still vulnerable to a losing Waratahs sneaking past them. Not a likely scenario but it is still in their interests for the Waratahs to win.
If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points they will finish on 40 points. If the Stormers lose without earning a bonus point they will finish on 39 and thus miss out on the semis given that the Hurricanes and the winners of Brumbies-Crusaders will each finish on at least 40 points.
If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points and the Crusaders win without a bonus point they will both finish on 40. At present the Waratahs hold a six-point advantage over the Crusaders in terms of points difference, so if both the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games had very tight finishes, the Waratahs could just nudge out the Crusaders.
In the semi-finals the Bulls will have a home game against the fourth finishing team, while the second finishing team will have a home game against the third finishing team.
The Stormers just need to beat the Bulls to lock in second place, but they should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points in case they themselves lose.
The Waratahs need to win to secure their place, but will be hoping that both the Stormers and Brumbies lose so that they are assured of second place and a home semi.
The Brumbies are out unless they win, but could reach second spot if they have a bonus point win and the Stormers lose so long as the Waratahs don't have a bonus point win.
The Hurricanes are in if they win but out if they lose.
The Crusaders are out if they lose but at some risk of missing out even if they win. They should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points.
Read more...
The current competition points tally and points for-and-against difference for the five teams are:
Stormers 39 166
Waratahs 38 81
Brumbies 37 85
Hurricanes 37 51
Crusaders 36 75
The Reds are virtually no possibility of making the four. Mathematically there is only one way they could make it. They would have to win with a bonus point and the Stormers lose without any bonus points, plus they would have to make up the 90 points difference advantage that the Stormers hold over them.
The most likely semi-finalists are the Bulls, Stormers and the winners of the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games. However both the Stormers if they lose and Crusaders even if they win are still vulnerable to a losing Waratahs sneaking past them. Not a likely scenario but it is still in their interests for the Waratahs to win.
If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points they will finish on 40 points. If the Stormers lose without earning a bonus point they will finish on 39 and thus miss out on the semis given that the Hurricanes and the winners of Brumbies-Crusaders will each finish on at least 40 points.
If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points and the Crusaders win without a bonus point they will both finish on 40. At present the Waratahs hold a six-point advantage over the Crusaders in terms of points difference, so if both the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games had very tight finishes, the Waratahs could just nudge out the Crusaders.
In the semi-finals the Bulls will have a home game against the fourth finishing team, while the second finishing team will have a home game against the third finishing team.
The Stormers just need to beat the Bulls to lock in second place, but they should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points in case they themselves lose.
The Waratahs need to win to secure their place, but will be hoping that both the Stormers and Brumbies lose so that they are assured of second place and a home semi.
The Brumbies are out unless they win, but could reach second spot if they have a bonus point win and the Stormers lose so long as the Waratahs don't have a bonus point win.
The Hurricanes are in if they win but out if they lose.
The Crusaders are out if they lose but at some risk of missing out even if they win. They should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points.
Read more...
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
MyoQuip manufacturing hub shifts to Britain
Innovative Australian strength equipment company, MyoQuip Pty Ltd, is shifting its main centre of operations to the UK following the appointment of Farnborough-based Gen3 Kinematics as its exclusive manufacturing licensee for the European Union.
MyoQuip was initially established to exploit the invention of a fundamentally unique method of developing pushing power of rugby forwards. Its first product, the ScrumTruk, was adopted by the Wallabies, each of the Australian Super 14 franchises, other rugby clubs, universities and private schools and colleges.
The ScrumTruk employed MyoQuip’s Broad Biomechanical Correspondence (BBC) technology which operates as a compensation mechanism for biomechanical disadvantage. For example, in the bottom range of the barbell squat, the hip and knee joint muscles operate at a considerable biomechanical disadvantage but then move into progressively more advantageous orientation as the exerciser rises. By contrast the BBC technology provides effective loading and high-range muscle fibre recruitment throughout the whole range of the exercise movement.
Taking advantage of its links to Sydney University’s 300 sporting scholarship holders, MyoQuip has refined and expanded its range of equipment now employed for many different sports, making it ideal for users such as the New South Wales Institute of Sport. At Sydney University machines such as the MyoTruk and MyoThrusta are routinely used for strength enhancement and injury rehabilitation by world champions and Olympic medallists in rowing and women’s basketball.
Gen3 Kinematics is a newly formed division of Gen3 Systems Limited, a financially independent, family owned and operated business for over 40 years, now in its 3rd generation - hence Gen3.
Its origins, foundations and future activities are firmly based in engineering. Initially in heavy engineering; 2nd Generation interests developed in the electronics industry resulting in a globally successful operation as both original equipment manufacturers and as specialist distributors.
Now in 2010 the 3rd Generation is offering diversification into specialist health care systems that focus on Kinematic Engineering, specifically “Engineering Solutions for Healthy Living”.
MyoQuip Managing Director Bruce Ross said: “In many ways Australia offers an ideal environment for a company operating in a field such as ours. You have a population with an intense interest in competitive sport, and there is a general willingness to ‘have a go’ and try something new.
Unfortunately there are also disadvantages such as geographical remoteness and limited population.
It is a fundamental principle of business that you go where the market is. For some time we have searched for a suitable European business partner and were extremely fortunate to have been approached by Gen3 Kinematics whose business philosophy meshes so well with ours. The fact that MyoQuip and Gen3 are both family owned companies probably contributes to this.
Their considerable expertise in engineering and electronics will be of great benefit to our partnership.”
Gen3 Kinematics Managing Director Graham Naisbitt said: “We are honoured and delighted to be associated with the hugely successful MyoQuip business and relish the opportunity to develop the market here in Europe. With MyoQuip systems already in use with Northampton Saints, we look forward to exploring opportunities with schools, colleges and universities as well as the rugby clubs in both Union and League but also with many other sports and rehab facilities in rowing, football, in fact with any sport where high level conditioning is important.
This new partnership benefits from having the already well established Gen3 Systems organisation behind it that will permit faster business growth especially with the Olympics so nearly upon us.”
Contact:
Bruce Ross
MyoQuip Pty Ltd
Box 105
Holme Building
University of Sydney
NSW 2006
Australia
Phone: +61 (0)2 9566 4029
Mobile: +61 (0)4 0328 1988
Email: bross@pacific.net.au
Web: http://www.myoquip.com.au/
Graham Naisbitt
Gen3 Kinematics
B2 Armstrong Mall
Southwood Business Park
Farnborough
Hampshire GU14 0NR
UK
Phone: +44 (0)12 5252 1500
Email: sales@gen3kinematics.com
Web: http://www.gen3kinematics.com/
Read more...
MyoQuip was initially established to exploit the invention of a fundamentally unique method of developing pushing power of rugby forwards. Its first product, the ScrumTruk, was adopted by the Wallabies, each of the Australian Super 14 franchises, other rugby clubs, universities and private schools and colleges.
The ScrumTruk employed MyoQuip’s Broad Biomechanical Correspondence (BBC) technology which operates as a compensation mechanism for biomechanical disadvantage. For example, in the bottom range of the barbell squat, the hip and knee joint muscles operate at a considerable biomechanical disadvantage but then move into progressively more advantageous orientation as the exerciser rises. By contrast the BBC technology provides effective loading and high-range muscle fibre recruitment throughout the whole range of the exercise movement.
Taking advantage of its links to Sydney University’s 300 sporting scholarship holders, MyoQuip has refined and expanded its range of equipment now employed for many different sports, making it ideal for users such as the New South Wales Institute of Sport. At Sydney University machines such as the MyoTruk and MyoThrusta are routinely used for strength enhancement and injury rehabilitation by world champions and Olympic medallists in rowing and women’s basketball.
Gen3 Kinematics is a newly formed division of Gen3 Systems Limited, a financially independent, family owned and operated business for over 40 years, now in its 3rd generation - hence Gen3.
Its origins, foundations and future activities are firmly based in engineering. Initially in heavy engineering; 2nd Generation interests developed in the electronics industry resulting in a globally successful operation as both original equipment manufacturers and as specialist distributors.
Now in 2010 the 3rd Generation is offering diversification into specialist health care systems that focus on Kinematic Engineering, specifically “Engineering Solutions for Healthy Living”.
MyoQuip Managing Director Bruce Ross said: “In many ways Australia offers an ideal environment for a company operating in a field such as ours. You have a population with an intense interest in competitive sport, and there is a general willingness to ‘have a go’ and try something new.
Unfortunately there are also disadvantages such as geographical remoteness and limited population.
It is a fundamental principle of business that you go where the market is. For some time we have searched for a suitable European business partner and were extremely fortunate to have been approached by Gen3 Kinematics whose business philosophy meshes so well with ours. The fact that MyoQuip and Gen3 are both family owned companies probably contributes to this.
Their considerable expertise in engineering and electronics will be of great benefit to our partnership.”
Gen3 Kinematics Managing Director Graham Naisbitt said: “We are honoured and delighted to be associated with the hugely successful MyoQuip business and relish the opportunity to develop the market here in Europe. With MyoQuip systems already in use with Northampton Saints, we look forward to exploring opportunities with schools, colleges and universities as well as the rugby clubs in both Union and League but also with many other sports and rehab facilities in rowing, football, in fact with any sport where high level conditioning is important.
This new partnership benefits from having the already well established Gen3 Systems organisation behind it that will permit faster business growth especially with the Olympics so nearly upon us.”
Contact:
Bruce Ross
MyoQuip Pty Ltd
Box 105
Holme Building
University of Sydney
NSW 2006
Australia
Phone: +61 (0)2 9566 4029
Mobile: +61 (0)4 0328 1988
Email: bross@pacific.net.au
Web: http://www.myoquip.com.au/
Graham Naisbitt
Gen3 Kinematics
B2 Armstrong Mall
Southwood Business Park
Farnborough
Hampshire GU14 0NR
UK
Phone: +44 (0)12 5252 1500
Email: sales@gen3kinematics.com
Web: http://www.gen3kinematics.com/
Read more...
Sunday, April 04, 2010
The key remaining games of the 2010 Super 14 with six weeks to go
A number of unexpected results have compressed the Super 14 points table but probably reduced the potential semi-finallists to eight teams.
The Australian media has focussed on the fact that the Waratahs are nominally top of the table, but they are there on sufferance as a consequence of not yet having had a bye. The real situation becomes clear after adjusting team points by adding four points for the bye. With this correction the current table becomes:
Bulls 32
Crusaders 29
Stormers 28
Waratahs 28
Reds 25
Chiefs 25
Brumbies 25
Blues 24
Hurricanes 18
Sharks 16
Cheetahs 13
Highlanders 11
Force 9
Lions 7
Thus the true position of the Waratahs is fourth place
It would now appear that the Hurricanes have virtually dropped out of contention, leaving eight points separating eight teams. As we have seen this week, teams in the bottom six are still capable of causing upsets, but the key matches are likely to be those between teams still in contention. Looking at the run home for each of them:
The Bulls on 32 have to play the Chiefs and Reds away, then finish with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers. They can no longer be regarded as certainties to make the semis but should get there.
The Crusaders on 29 are at home to the Waratahs, then away to the Stormers and Bulls, before hosting the Brumbies in the final round.
The Stormers on 28 are away to the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, at home to the Crusaders, then away to the Bulls.
The Waratahs on 28 are away to the Crusaders, at home to the Brumbies, then away to the Chiefs.
The Reds on 25 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies.
The Chiefs on 25 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Waratahs then away to the Blues.
The Brumbies on 25 are away to the Waratahs, at home to the Reds and away to the Crusaders.They may regret only having collected one bonus point thus far.
The Blues on 24 are at home to the Stormers and Chiefs.
It could be that the eighth-placed Blues, by virtue of their easier run home, may sneak into the finals series, but the qualifying teams and order of finishing may only be resolved in the final week
Read more...
The Australian media has focussed on the fact that the Waratahs are nominally top of the table, but they are there on sufferance as a consequence of not yet having had a bye. The real situation becomes clear after adjusting team points by adding four points for the bye. With this correction the current table becomes:
Bulls 32
Crusaders 29
Stormers 28
Waratahs 28
Reds 25
Chiefs 25
Brumbies 25
Blues 24
Hurricanes 18
Sharks 16
Cheetahs 13
Highlanders 11
Force 9
Lions 7
Thus the true position of the Waratahs is fourth place
It would now appear that the Hurricanes have virtually dropped out of contention, leaving eight points separating eight teams. As we have seen this week, teams in the bottom six are still capable of causing upsets, but the key matches are likely to be those between teams still in contention. Looking at the run home for each of them:
The Bulls on 32 have to play the Chiefs and Reds away, then finish with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers. They can no longer be regarded as certainties to make the semis but should get there.
The Crusaders on 29 are at home to the Waratahs, then away to the Stormers and Bulls, before hosting the Brumbies in the final round.
The Stormers on 28 are away to the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, at home to the Crusaders, then away to the Bulls.
The Waratahs on 28 are away to the Crusaders, at home to the Brumbies, then away to the Chiefs.
The Reds on 25 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies.
The Chiefs on 25 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Waratahs then away to the Blues.
The Brumbies on 25 are away to the Waratahs, at home to the Reds and away to the Crusaders.They may regret only having collected one bonus point thus far.
The Blues on 24 are at home to the Stormers and Chiefs.
It could be that the eighth-placed Blues, by virtue of their easier run home, may sneak into the finals series, but the qualifying teams and order of finishing may only be resolved in the final week
Read more...
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
The key remaining games in the 2010 Super 14
The Super 14 has now passed the halfway point with seven weeks remaining before the finals series. The points table presents a somewhat confusing picture, with some teams having played seven games and the others, having had a bye, only six. The situation becomes somewhat clearer if team totals are adjusted by allowing four points for the bye. With this correction the current table becomes:
Bulls 32
Stormers 27
Crusaders 27
Waratahs 23
Reds 23
Brumbies 21
Chiefs 21
Blues 20
Hurricanes 16
Cheetahs 13
Sharks 12
Highlanders 10
Force 5
Lions 3
It would appear that there are nine teams still with some prospect of making the semi finals; the Cheetahs, Sharks, Highlanders, Force and Lions having dropped out of contention. Although the bottom five may still cause the odd upset, the key matches are going to be those between the top nine.
Bonus points may still be important, although thus far there is a very limited spread of these extra points between the top nine. The Stormers, Crusaders, Waratahs, Reds and Hurricanes each have three; the Bulls and Blues have four; while the outliers are the Brumbies and Chiefs on one and five respectively.
Looking at the key matches for each of the nine in the run home:
The Bulls on 32 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, before finishing with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers.
The Stormers on 27 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, then a home game against the Crusaders, before finishing with an away game against the Bulls.
The Crusaders on 27 play away against the Hurricanes, then are home to the Waratahs, away to the Stormers and Bulls, before finishing at home to the Brumbies.
The Waratahs on 23 play away to the Crusaders, home to the Brumbies, away to the Chiefs, then home to the Hurricanes.
The Reds on 23 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies and Hurricanes.
The Brumbies on 21 are at home to the Hurricanes, away to the Waratahs, home to the Reds, then away to the Crusaders.
The Chiefs on 21 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, away to the Hurricanes, home to the Waratahs, then away to the Blues.
The Blues on 20 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Chiefs.
Finally, the Hurricanes on 16 are at home to the Crusaders, away to the Brumbies, home to the Chiefs, and finally away to the Waratahs.
The key matches this weekend are Blues vs. Bulls and Hurricanes vs. Crusaders. If these go according to script the Blues and Hurricanes might basically drop out of contention. Unless one or more of the top three begin to drop a number of games, there is likely to be a fierce contest for the fourth semi spot between the three Australian contenders and the Chiefs. Matches between those four over the last three weeks: Waratahs - Brumbies, Brumbies - Reds, and Chiefs - Waratahs may well be the discriminator.
Of course, upset wins by the bottom five teams or an accumulation of bonus points may upset this logic.
Read more...
Bulls 32
Stormers 27
Crusaders 27
Waratahs 23
Reds 23
Brumbies 21
Chiefs 21
Blues 20
Hurricanes 16
Cheetahs 13
Sharks 12
Highlanders 10
Force 5
Lions 3
It would appear that there are nine teams still with some prospect of making the semi finals; the Cheetahs, Sharks, Highlanders, Force and Lions having dropped out of contention. Although the bottom five may still cause the odd upset, the key matches are going to be those between the top nine.
Bonus points may still be important, although thus far there is a very limited spread of these extra points between the top nine. The Stormers, Crusaders, Waratahs, Reds and Hurricanes each have three; the Bulls and Blues have four; while the outliers are the Brumbies and Chiefs on one and five respectively.
Looking at the key matches for each of the nine in the run home:
The Bulls on 32 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, before finishing with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers.
The Stormers on 27 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, then a home game against the Crusaders, before finishing with an away game against the Bulls.
The Crusaders on 27 play away against the Hurricanes, then are home to the Waratahs, away to the Stormers and Bulls, before finishing at home to the Brumbies.
The Waratahs on 23 play away to the Crusaders, home to the Brumbies, away to the Chiefs, then home to the Hurricanes.
The Reds on 23 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies and Hurricanes.
The Brumbies on 21 are at home to the Hurricanes, away to the Waratahs, home to the Reds, then away to the Crusaders.
The Chiefs on 21 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, away to the Hurricanes, home to the Waratahs, then away to the Blues.
The Blues on 20 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Chiefs.
Finally, the Hurricanes on 16 are at home to the Crusaders, away to the Brumbies, home to the Chiefs, and finally away to the Waratahs.
The key matches this weekend are Blues vs. Bulls and Hurricanes vs. Crusaders. If these go according to script the Blues and Hurricanes might basically drop out of contention. Unless one or more of the top three begin to drop a number of games, there is likely to be a fierce contest for the fourth semi spot between the three Australian contenders and the Chiefs. Matches between those four over the last three weeks: Waratahs - Brumbies, Brumbies - Reds, and Chiefs - Waratahs may well be the discriminator.
Of course, upset wins by the bottom five teams or an accumulation of bonus points may upset this logic.
Read more...
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