With only one round remaining in the 2010 Super 14 there is still considerable uncertainty about three of the semi-final positions. The Bulls are certain to finish on top but there are five teams vying for the remaining three positions. Intriguingly each of these teams has to play another finals contender. The three relevant games are: Crusaders vs. Brumbies at Christchurch; Waratahs vs. Hurricanes at Sydney; and Stormers vs. Bulls at Cape Town.
The current competition points tally and points for-and-against difference for the five teams are:
Stormers 39 166
Waratahs 38 81
Brumbies 37 85
Hurricanes 37 51
Crusaders 36 75
The Reds are virtually no possibility of making the four. Mathematically there is only one way they could make it. They would have to win with a bonus point and the Stormers lose without any bonus points, plus they would have to make up the 90 points difference advantage that the Stormers hold over them.
The most likely semi-finalists are the Bulls, Stormers and the winners of the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games. However both the Stormers if they lose and Crusaders even if they win are still vulnerable to a losing Waratahs sneaking past them. Not a likely scenario but it is still in their interests for the Waratahs to win.
If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points they will finish on 40 points. If the Stormers lose without earning a bonus point they will finish on 39 and thus miss out on the semis given that the Hurricanes and the winners of Brumbies-Crusaders will each finish on at least 40 points.
If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points and the Crusaders win without a bonus point they will both finish on 40. At present the Waratahs hold a six-point advantage over the Crusaders in terms of points difference, so if both the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games had very tight finishes, the Waratahs could just nudge out the Crusaders.
In the semi-finals the Bulls will have a home game against the fourth finishing team, while the second finishing team will have a home game against the third finishing team.
The Stormers just need to beat the Bulls to lock in second place, but they should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points in case they themselves lose.
The Waratahs need to win to secure their place, but will be hoping that both the Stormers and Brumbies lose so that they are assured of second place and a home semi.
The Brumbies are out unless they win, but could reach second spot if they have a bonus point win and the Stormers lose so long as the Waratahs don't have a bonus point win.
The Hurricanes are in if they win but out if they lose.
The Crusaders are out if they lose but at some risk of missing out even if they win. They should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points.
Read more...
Showing posts with label Super 14. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super 14. Show all posts
Sunday, May 09, 2010
Sunday, April 04, 2010
The key remaining games of the 2010 Super 14 with six weeks to go
A number of unexpected results have compressed the Super 14 points table but probably reduced the potential semi-finallists to eight teams.
The Australian media has focussed on the fact that the Waratahs are nominally top of the table, but they are there on sufferance as a consequence of not yet having had a bye. The real situation becomes clear after adjusting team points by adding four points for the bye. With this correction the current table becomes:
Bulls 32
Crusaders 29
Stormers 28
Waratahs 28
Reds 25
Chiefs 25
Brumbies 25
Blues 24
Hurricanes 18
Sharks 16
Cheetahs 13
Highlanders 11
Force 9
Lions 7
Thus the true position of the Waratahs is fourth place
It would now appear that the Hurricanes have virtually dropped out of contention, leaving eight points separating eight teams. As we have seen this week, teams in the bottom six are still capable of causing upsets, but the key matches are likely to be those between teams still in contention. Looking at the run home for each of them:
The Bulls on 32 have to play the Chiefs and Reds away, then finish with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers. They can no longer be regarded as certainties to make the semis but should get there.
The Crusaders on 29 are at home to the Waratahs, then away to the Stormers and Bulls, before hosting the Brumbies in the final round.
The Stormers on 28 are away to the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, at home to the Crusaders, then away to the Bulls.
The Waratahs on 28 are away to the Crusaders, at home to the Brumbies, then away to the Chiefs.
The Reds on 25 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies.
The Chiefs on 25 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Waratahs then away to the Blues.
The Brumbies on 25 are away to the Waratahs, at home to the Reds and away to the Crusaders.They may regret only having collected one bonus point thus far.
The Blues on 24 are at home to the Stormers and Chiefs.
It could be that the eighth-placed Blues, by virtue of their easier run home, may sneak into the finals series, but the qualifying teams and order of finishing may only be resolved in the final week
Read more...
The Australian media has focussed on the fact that the Waratahs are nominally top of the table, but they are there on sufferance as a consequence of not yet having had a bye. The real situation becomes clear after adjusting team points by adding four points for the bye. With this correction the current table becomes:
Bulls 32
Crusaders 29
Stormers 28
Waratahs 28
Reds 25
Chiefs 25
Brumbies 25
Blues 24
Hurricanes 18
Sharks 16
Cheetahs 13
Highlanders 11
Force 9
Lions 7
Thus the true position of the Waratahs is fourth place
It would now appear that the Hurricanes have virtually dropped out of contention, leaving eight points separating eight teams. As we have seen this week, teams in the bottom six are still capable of causing upsets, but the key matches are likely to be those between teams still in contention. Looking at the run home for each of them:
The Bulls on 32 have to play the Chiefs and Reds away, then finish with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers. They can no longer be regarded as certainties to make the semis but should get there.
The Crusaders on 29 are at home to the Waratahs, then away to the Stormers and Bulls, before hosting the Brumbies in the final round.
The Stormers on 28 are away to the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, at home to the Crusaders, then away to the Bulls.
The Waratahs on 28 are away to the Crusaders, at home to the Brumbies, then away to the Chiefs.
The Reds on 25 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies.
The Chiefs on 25 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Waratahs then away to the Blues.
The Brumbies on 25 are away to the Waratahs, at home to the Reds and away to the Crusaders.They may regret only having collected one bonus point thus far.
The Blues on 24 are at home to the Stormers and Chiefs.
It could be that the eighth-placed Blues, by virtue of their easier run home, may sneak into the finals series, but the qualifying teams and order of finishing may only be resolved in the final week
Read more...
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
The key remaining games in the 2010 Super 14
The Super 14 has now passed the halfway point with seven weeks remaining before the finals series. The points table presents a somewhat confusing picture, with some teams having played seven games and the others, having had a bye, only six. The situation becomes somewhat clearer if team totals are adjusted by allowing four points for the bye. With this correction the current table becomes:
Bulls 32
Stormers 27
Crusaders 27
Waratahs 23
Reds 23
Brumbies 21
Chiefs 21
Blues 20
Hurricanes 16
Cheetahs 13
Sharks 12
Highlanders 10
Force 5
Lions 3
It would appear that there are nine teams still with some prospect of making the semi finals; the Cheetahs, Sharks, Highlanders, Force and Lions having dropped out of contention. Although the bottom five may still cause the odd upset, the key matches are going to be those between the top nine.
Bonus points may still be important, although thus far there is a very limited spread of these extra points between the top nine. The Stormers, Crusaders, Waratahs, Reds and Hurricanes each have three; the Bulls and Blues have four; while the outliers are the Brumbies and Chiefs on one and five respectively.
Looking at the key matches for each of the nine in the run home:
The Bulls on 32 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, before finishing with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers.
The Stormers on 27 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, then a home game against the Crusaders, before finishing with an away game against the Bulls.
The Crusaders on 27 play away against the Hurricanes, then are home to the Waratahs, away to the Stormers and Bulls, before finishing at home to the Brumbies.
The Waratahs on 23 play away to the Crusaders, home to the Brumbies, away to the Chiefs, then home to the Hurricanes.
The Reds on 23 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies and Hurricanes.
The Brumbies on 21 are at home to the Hurricanes, away to the Waratahs, home to the Reds, then away to the Crusaders.
The Chiefs on 21 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, away to the Hurricanes, home to the Waratahs, then away to the Blues.
The Blues on 20 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Chiefs.
Finally, the Hurricanes on 16 are at home to the Crusaders, away to the Brumbies, home to the Chiefs, and finally away to the Waratahs.
The key matches this weekend are Blues vs. Bulls and Hurricanes vs. Crusaders. If these go according to script the Blues and Hurricanes might basically drop out of contention. Unless one or more of the top three begin to drop a number of games, there is likely to be a fierce contest for the fourth semi spot between the three Australian contenders and the Chiefs. Matches between those four over the last three weeks: Waratahs - Brumbies, Brumbies - Reds, and Chiefs - Waratahs may well be the discriminator.
Of course, upset wins by the bottom five teams or an accumulation of bonus points may upset this logic.
Read more...
Bulls 32
Stormers 27
Crusaders 27
Waratahs 23
Reds 23
Brumbies 21
Chiefs 21
Blues 20
Hurricanes 16
Cheetahs 13
Sharks 12
Highlanders 10
Force 5
Lions 3
It would appear that there are nine teams still with some prospect of making the semi finals; the Cheetahs, Sharks, Highlanders, Force and Lions having dropped out of contention. Although the bottom five may still cause the odd upset, the key matches are going to be those between the top nine.
Bonus points may still be important, although thus far there is a very limited spread of these extra points between the top nine. The Stormers, Crusaders, Waratahs, Reds and Hurricanes each have three; the Bulls and Blues have four; while the outliers are the Brumbies and Chiefs on one and five respectively.
Looking at the key matches for each of the nine in the run home:
The Bulls on 32 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, before finishing with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers.
The Stormers on 27 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, then a home game against the Crusaders, before finishing with an away game against the Bulls.
The Crusaders on 27 play away against the Hurricanes, then are home to the Waratahs, away to the Stormers and Bulls, before finishing at home to the Brumbies.
The Waratahs on 23 play away to the Crusaders, home to the Brumbies, away to the Chiefs, then home to the Hurricanes.
The Reds on 23 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies and Hurricanes.
The Brumbies on 21 are at home to the Hurricanes, away to the Waratahs, home to the Reds, then away to the Crusaders.
The Chiefs on 21 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, away to the Hurricanes, home to the Waratahs, then away to the Blues.
The Blues on 20 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Chiefs.
Finally, the Hurricanes on 16 are at home to the Crusaders, away to the Brumbies, home to the Chiefs, and finally away to the Waratahs.
The key matches this weekend are Blues vs. Bulls and Hurricanes vs. Crusaders. If these go according to script the Blues and Hurricanes might basically drop out of contention. Unless one or more of the top three begin to drop a number of games, there is likely to be a fierce contest for the fourth semi spot between the three Australian contenders and the Chiefs. Matches between those four over the last three weeks: Waratahs - Brumbies, Brumbies - Reds, and Chiefs - Waratahs may well be the discriminator.
Of course, upset wins by the bottom five teams or an accumulation of bonus points may upset this logic.
Read more...
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Too old at 30 - Australian rugby's "scrapheap" policy
The Australian rugby coach and his selectors appear to be following a quite deliberate policy of favouring emerging players over those with significant international playing experience. One consequence of this is that the Australian Super 14 franchises are being denuded of senior players who traditionally mentor and guide those who are just learning their craft.
In the Test against Ireland, the Wallabies do not have a single player aged 30 or more in their starting fifteen. Their opponents have eight, a majority of the team! The average age of our 22-man squad is 25.2 years; theirs is 27.5. Our oldest starter is 28.
Consider the average age of the most recent teams of the top ten rugby countries, i.e., Tri-Nations, Six Nations plus Argentina. Every other side's players are more than a year older than the Wallabies. And every other country has two or more starting players who are at least 30 years old.
Rugby is an unusually complex game. It takes players years to achieve real competency. And yet we are seeing a new generation of talented youngsters rushed from school into professional football and then on to the international level. A minority manage to establish themselves at the top, but I wonder whether even they achieve their full potential. In their development years they should be playing in an environment where they can dominate instead of one where they constantly struggle to survive.
Because of the centralised control of the sport by the ARU, the premature discarding of experienced players has extremely adverse impacts at the Super 14 levels and even down through the clubs. The central body dictates how much players can be paid by the franchises who are basically mendicants surviving on handouts from the centre. It is therefore only those players who are on ARU contracts who earn large incomes. Once taken off the national list players have little choice but to round out their careers in Europe or in the Bermuda Triangle of Japanese rugby.
The effect of this is that all their accumulated wisdom and experience is lost to their Super 14 teams and their clubs; basically to Australian rugby. And then people say that we don't have a large enough talent pool in Australia. The main way in which the great minds who control our sport have dealt with this problem is to buy in so-called rugby league marquee players who then spend years trying to master the fundamentals of our sport. How can young players benefit by playing with extravagantly paid blow-ins who know vastly less than they do?
It has been observed that rugby is basically war without the guns. When you're forced to slog it out in the trenches, who would you want with you? A grizzled battle-scarred veteran or an over-excited kid who believes all the hype and publicity generated about him. Small wonder that we can't string wins together.
Read more...
In the Test against Ireland, the Wallabies do not have a single player aged 30 or more in their starting fifteen. Their opponents have eight, a majority of the team! The average age of our 22-man squad is 25.2 years; theirs is 27.5. Our oldest starter is 28.
Consider the average age of the most recent teams of the top ten rugby countries, i.e., Tri-Nations, Six Nations plus Argentina. Every other side's players are more than a year older than the Wallabies. And every other country has two or more starting players who are at least 30 years old.
Rugby is an unusually complex game. It takes players years to achieve real competency. And yet we are seeing a new generation of talented youngsters rushed from school into professional football and then on to the international level. A minority manage to establish themselves at the top, but I wonder whether even they achieve their full potential. In their development years they should be playing in an environment where they can dominate instead of one where they constantly struggle to survive.
Because of the centralised control of the sport by the ARU, the premature discarding of experienced players has extremely adverse impacts at the Super 14 levels and even down through the clubs. The central body dictates how much players can be paid by the franchises who are basically mendicants surviving on handouts from the centre. It is therefore only those players who are on ARU contracts who earn large incomes. Once taken off the national list players have little choice but to round out their careers in Europe or in the Bermuda Triangle of Japanese rugby.
The effect of this is that all their accumulated wisdom and experience is lost to their Super 14 teams and their clubs; basically to Australian rugby. And then people say that we don't have a large enough talent pool in Australia. The main way in which the great minds who control our sport have dealt with this problem is to buy in so-called rugby league marquee players who then spend years trying to master the fundamentals of our sport. How can young players benefit by playing with extravagantly paid blow-ins who know vastly less than they do?
It has been observed that rugby is basically war without the guns. When you're forced to slog it out in the trenches, who would you want with you? A grizzled battle-scarred veteran or an over-excited kid who believes all the hype and publicity generated about him. Small wonder that we can't string wins together.
Read more...
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
At last! A dominant Wallaby scrum
Aussie aficionados of trench-warfare rugby will enjoy the video, "Wallabies scrums from Twickenham video highlights" posted on Green and Gold Rugby - THE Aussie Rugby Blog.
It's been a long time between drinks for the Aussie engine room, and great to see them vindicated after the bagging they copped pre-game from the English press and frontrowers. Considering the improved scrummaging on this tour, perhaps the fact that the Wallabies and all four Australian Super 14 franchises use the ScrumTruk is beginning to pay dividends.
Still one egg doesn't make an omelette, and the Green and Golds have to show they can do it again against the French this weekend. I am not sure that the English front row, Andy Sheridan in particular, are going to be in too good a shape to back up again against the Springboks.
Read more...
It's been a long time between drinks for the Aussie engine room, and great to see them vindicated after the bagging they copped pre-game from the English press and frontrowers. Considering the improved scrummaging on this tour, perhaps the fact that the Wallabies and all four Australian Super 14 franchises use the ScrumTruk is beginning to pay dividends.
Still one egg doesn't make an omelette, and the Green and Golds have to show they can do it again against the French this weekend. I am not sure that the English front row, Andy Sheridan in particular, are going to be in too good a shape to back up again against the Springboks.
Read more...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
